Pollution acceleration before braking: evidence of environmental deterioration from the anticipated steel restriction policy in China

Abstract

This research employs China’s steel restriction policy as a backdrop to investigate environmental policies’ unintended and counterproductive effects. Using high-resolution satellite-derived data and panel Difference-in-Differences regression, we found that the air pollution concentration in cities implementing the steel restriction policy is 5.688 μg/m3 higher than in control group cities. Additionally, the growth rate of air pollution in these cities is 6.577% faster. This quantitative evidence substantiates the backfire effect of the anticipation of environmental policy, where the delay between a policy’s announcement and its enforcement leads to a short-term surge in pollution levels. For China and other emerging economies, the development of a thorough and deliberate intergovernmental cooperation strategy is critical when formulating environmental policies. It involves synchronizing the efforts of different government levels in applying pollution controls and diminishing the interval of potential intense pollution in the pre-implementation phase.