Predicting shear strength of corroded RC columns: a probabilistic model with enhanced Gaussian Process Regression

Abstract

This study proposes a new probabilistic model for predicting the shear strength of corroded reinforced concrete (RC) columns. The probabilistic model addresses limitations of traditional methods by combining mechanical understanding with enhanced Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). A novel mean function for enhanced GPR is developed first based on the shear resistance mechanism of corroded RC columns. Then the hyper-parameters of both the mean function and kernel function for the enhanced GPR are optimized using the maximum likelihood estimation method. This leads to the establishment of the probabilistic model that is based on the enhanced GPR. Finally, the accuracy and effectiveness of the enhanced GPR probabilistic model are validated by comparing it with both traditional mechanical models and machine learning models. The results indicate that the proposed probabilistic model can not only describes the probabilistic characteristics for shear strength of corroded RC columns based on probability density functions, but also provides an efficient calibration method for traditional prediction models based on confidence intervals.