Climate and tourism in Singapore: analysing the role of weather variability on tourism demand in Singapore

Abstract

This research study investigates how climate variability affects tourism in Singapore. Specifically, we look at how weather variables—temperature, rainfall, humidity and sunshine hours—affect tourism arrivals and air departures from 1978 to 2019. The study employs the use of a time-series regression model, incorporating month and year fixed effects, lagged variables and interaction terms. Our findings suggest that temperature shock has the greatest impact on visitor arrivals into Singapore 3 months after the shock occurs. Furthermore, arrivals into Singapore from the UK experience a small positive increase when mean air temperature in Singapore increases. A possible explanation for this would be that tourists adjust their travel based on current weather information before booking a destination, with some from temperate climates preferring warmer weather. Air departures out of Singapore on the other hand, experience little response to these climate variables, highlighting the greater influence the conditions of the destination has rather than that of the origin area on tourists’ decision-making. These insights offer practical implications for tourism stakeholders who wish to engage in climate risk hedging.