Inter-company information transfer

Abstract

The objective of the research is to study whedier "a revised profit forecast error" is a better measurement of the "earning surprise". It is well documented by Ray Ball and Philip Brown, as well as others, that the "abnormal returns or errors" on the earning announcement day (or cumulative abnormal returns) is related to unexpected earnings (or errors in forecasting current earnings). Generally, in the absence of a market consensus, the "surprise earning" or "error in earning forecast" is defined by the announced EPS (earnings per share) less the EPS of last year. This is termed as the "naive model". In the Singapore context, that seems to be the only viable alternative as market (or analyst) forecasts are not readily available to the public.