Statistical modelling of electricity price in Singapore power market

Abstract

In most financial-driven markets, statistical tools are often used in the study of price behaviour. Currently, various researches have been conducted in the analysis of the electricity price behaviour using technical and mathematical tools. In addition is the widely used statistical method which is solely based on the historical data. With the deregulation of the electricity market in Singapore, such analysis of the electricity price behaviour will be crucial for both the consumers and generating companies.

In this report, the student presents the studies conducted in the analyses and modelling of the electricity price using the historical data. The price data are categorized into different time scales: half-hourly, daily, monthly and seasonal variation. Statistical models were identified using the polynomial regression technique in order to model short-term estimation of the future spot price. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) was designed in the latter part of the project to implement the findings of the statistical analysis and modelling by graphically display the results.

When fully developed, such a statistical distribution analysis and modelling of electricity price will be an invaluable tool for distribution and generating companies in their forecast of the spot prices, which will be very crucial in their operating decisions.