Should Asean be the primary driving force of the Asean regional forum?

Abstract

This study explores the issue of whether the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should be the primary driving force of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), which seems to be an anomalous situation as the weaker states (ASEAN) are leading the stronger states including the US, China and Japan. There appears to be ample though still unproven potential for ASEAN to play a useful role through two primary approaches, firstly in sustaining and enhancing the peace and stability in the Asia Pacific region, and secondly by cultivating a cooperative climate. However, ASEAN also faces serious challenges in exercising its managerial role. The strengths and weaknesses of ASEAN's management are further examined in the context of environmental restraints and opportunities to draw out the imperatives for change. Notwithstanding the pressures for modifications, the analysis suggests that any change now could instead be counterproductive. This study concludes that ASEAN should remain as the primary driving force of the ARF for the moment. Although ASEAN has reiterated its intention to lead, it should recognise that the utility of its leading role will deplete as the ARF matures. ASEAN should therefore continually evaluate the effectiveness of its management of the ARF, and be prepared to accept changes when it becomes necessary.