Vietnam's growing assertiveness towards China in the South China Sea.

Abstract

Vietnam has taken a more strident stance to oppose China's moves in the South China Sea resulting in tensions between the two countries rising appreciably since 2007. Robert Jervis's conceptual framework, which is the individual, bureaucratic, domestic and international levels of analysis, was applied to explain why Vietnam has been increasingly assertive in its policies towards China. Looking mainly at Hanoi, the thesis argues that the convergence of the following factors - the rise of an assertive Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung backed by a hawkish "anti-China" faction, the growing domestic anti-China nationalism, and the increasing perception amongst Vietnamese elite that China is a revisionist power that will use force to wrest its claims if the opportunity arises - explain why Vietnam has shown greater willingness to play hardball with China in the South China Sea, while aggressively cultivating new friends in the US, Japan and India. Conversely, the divergence of the factors in all four levels has also resulted in moderate policies towards China. Tensions were thus kept in check and were not allowed to spiral out of control.