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Title: Community preferences, insurgency, and the success of reconstruction spending.
Authors: Child, Travers Barclay.
Keywords: DRNTU::Social sciences
Issue Date: 2010
Abstract: Existing models of insurgency and counterinsurgency are challenged by a model of reconstruction spending in which occupier and community preferences over spending location are not necessarily aligned. Insurgency occurs in equilibrium where the spending allocation chosen by the occupier is sufficiently different from that desired by the community, and fewer projects of both kinds are completed as a result. The model suggests winning hearts and minds is less about the size of the reconstruction effort than its character. Statistical evidence for the case of Afghanistan is shown to strongly support this model; Spending on agriculture, education, and water infrastructure is found to increase violence, while spending on governance, transportation, health, security, and capacity building is found to mitigate violence. The effects of spending are sensitive to ethnicity, lending further support to the model.
Description: 60 p.
Rights: Nanyang Technological University
Fulltext Permission: restricted
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:RSIS Theses

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