Why Myanmar will adopt a more open trade policy : a political economy analysis.

Abstract

Using a political economy approach, this paper suggests that Myanmar will

adopt a more open trade policy than is presently the case. This is because it is in the

interests of politically powerful societal and state actors-the top military leadership,

the President and the legislature-to do so for reasons of state development and

political survival. I also find that there are other societal actors like the cronies of the

previous military regime, certain elements of the military and ethnic minority elites

who may be against an open trade policy as this reduces the benefits that they derive

from rent seeking opportunities in a closed economy. But because these actors have

weaker political power, they will likely fail to oppose moves for a more open trade

policy. Instead, the cronies may make the best of this situation and attempt to

increase their economic domination in post-reform Myanmar. While conservative

military elements; and regional army commanders and their network of business and

minority elite allies in the borderlands may cling on to their rent seeking efforts, this

will only have a marginal effect and will not significantly alter Myanmar's overall

move towards a more open trade policy.