Strategic warning failure and regime change: lessons for Southeast Asia.

Abstract

This dissertation examines the role of strategic warning with respect to regime change, drawing on the intelligence studies and strategic surprise literature. It argues that in a region such as Southeast Asia that is characterised by a complex and fluid security environment, there is a strong overlap between the underlying strategic trends and processes that must be analyzed in order to anticipate regime change and those that may lead to situations of international tensions and conflict. Intelligence and policy must act in tandem if either is to be effective, and for this to be achieved there must be a strategic logic underlying policy frameworks and intelligence direction.