Reconstruction of dengue fever transmission network in Singapore

Abstract

Dengue fever is a serious public health concern which is endemic in many parts of the world. The lack of a specific cure or treatment makes it more worrying because if not treated, dengue fever can potentially lead to death.

To gain better understanding of the dengue transmission network in Singapore, 2 correlation models were generated. The models aim to establish associations between population density, dengue incidence and occurrence of hotspots. Subsequently, detailed spatial and temporal analysis on specific parts of Singapore were carried out to check for spreading patterns that may model theoretical network models.

Findings revealed that dengue clusters tend to appear more frequently in areas that has a higher population density. It was also observed that with more clusters appearing in the whole of Singapore, there was a greater number of incidence where dengue fever was diagnosed across the country. Through spatial and temporal analysis, it was observed that on an isolated scale, the dengue transmission network exhibited the characteristics of a scale-free network, although not mathematically justified.

To better understand the spreading network of dengue, factors such as climate, human interactions and transportation must be considered.