Security strategy under uncertainty : Vietnam’s strategic behaviour in the East Asian power shifts

Abstract

Southeast Asia is an evolving environment of strategic transition, with fluxes in great power rivalry creating perceptions of uncertainty among smaller states. Traditionally, the “Balance of Power” theory, with its focus on Great Power dynamics has been used to understand evolving security landscapes. However, “Hedging” has emerged as a third strategic option for Secondary States in addition to “balancing” and “bandwagoning” in shaping interactions vis-à-vis Great Powers. Vietnam provides a unique case study due to its complex national history and geopolitical circumstances. This paper, through close examination of literature and primary sources, aims to elucidate Vietnam’s security strategies through periods of uncertainty and evaluate the role of history via Path Dependency theories and Critical Junctures in shaping them. It argues that Vietnamese strategic behaviour is above all, pragmatic and realist, especially vis-à-vis China, where a tumultuous history fraught with conflict act as key considerations for contemporary security strategies.