Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/80523
Title: The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Authors: Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento
Greenhalgh, David
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
Amaku, Marcos
Lopez, Luis Fernandez
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Ximenes, Raphael
Struchiner, Claudio José
Massad, Eduardo
Keywords: Dengue
Mathematical models
Risk assessment
Olympic games
Travel medicine
Issue Date: 2016
Source: Ximenes, R., Amaku, M., Lopez, L. F., Coutinho, F. A. B., Burattini, M. N., Greenhalgh, D., et al. (2016). The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. BMC Infectious Diseases, 16(186).
Series/Report no.: BMC Infectious Diseases
Abstract: Background Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified. Methods A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics. Results The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007. Conclusions If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals.
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/80523
http://hdl.handle.net/10220/40516
ISSN: 1471-2334
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-016-1517-z
Rights: © 2016 Ximenes et al. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:LKCMedicine Journal Articles

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