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Title: Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe
Authors: Massad, Eduardo
Amaku, Marcos
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Struchiner, Claudio José
Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento
Khan, Kamran
Liu-Helmersson, Jing
Rocklöv, Joacim
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
Keywords: Experimental Models Of Disease
Infectious Diseases
Issue Date: 2018
Source: Massad, E., Amaku, M., Coutinho, F. A. B., Struchiner, C. J., Burattini, M. N., Khan, K., et al. (2018). Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe. Scientific Reports, 8(1).
Series/Report no.: Scientific Reports
Abstract: Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present.
ISSN: 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-22590-5
Rights: © 2018 The Author(s) (Nature Publishing Group). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
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