Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/80798
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dc.contributor.authorMassad, Eduardoen
dc.contributor.authorAmaku, Marcosen
dc.contributor.authorCoutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerraen
dc.contributor.authorStruchiner, Claudio Joséen
dc.contributor.authorBurattini, Marcelo Nascimentoen
dc.contributor.authorKhan, Kamranen
dc.contributor.authorLiu-Helmersson, Jingen
dc.contributor.authorRocklöv, Joacimen
dc.contributor.authorKraemer, Moritz U. G.en
dc.contributor.authorWilder-Smith, Anneliesen
dc.date.accessioned2018-07-09T01:50:47Zen
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-06T13:59:10Z-
dc.date.available2018-07-09T01:50:47Zen
dc.date.available2019-12-06T13:59:10Z-
dc.date.issued2018en
dc.identifier.citationMassad, E., Amaku, M., Coutinho, F. A. B., Struchiner, C. J., Burattini, M. N., Khan, K., et al. (2018). Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe. Scientific Reports, 8(1).en
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10356/80798-
dc.description.abstractGiven the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present.en
dc.format.extent12 p.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesScientific Reportsen
dc.rights© 2018 The Author(s) (Nature Publishing Group). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectExperimental Models Of Diseaseen
dc.subjectInfectious Diseasesen
dc.titleEstimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europeen
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.contributor.schoolLee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine)en
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41598-018-22590-5en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
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item.grantfulltextopen-
Appears in Collections:LKCMedicine Journal Articles

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