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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Massad, Eduardo | en |
dc.contributor.author | Amaku, Marcos | en |
dc.contributor.author | Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra | en |
dc.contributor.author | Struchiner, Claudio José | en |
dc.contributor.author | Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento | en |
dc.contributor.author | Khan, Kamran | en |
dc.contributor.author | Liu-Helmersson, Jing | en |
dc.contributor.author | Rocklöv, Joacim | en |
dc.contributor.author | Kraemer, Moritz U. G. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Wilder-Smith, Annelies | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-07-09T01:50:47Z | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-12-06T13:59:10Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2018-07-09T01:50:47Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2019-12-06T13:59:10Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2018 | en |
dc.identifier.citation | Massad, E., Amaku, M., Coutinho, F. A. B., Struchiner, C. J., Burattini, M. N., Khan, K., et al. (2018). Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe. Scientific Reports, 8(1). | en |
dc.identifier.issn | 2045-2322 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10356/80798 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present. | en |
dc.format.extent | 12 p. | en |
dc.language.iso | en | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | Scientific Reports | en |
dc.rights | © 2018 The Author(s) (Nature Publishing Group). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en |
dc.subject | Experimental Models Of Disease | en |
dc.subject | Infectious Diseases | en |
dc.title | Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe | en |
dc.type | Journal Article | en |
dc.contributor.school | Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine) | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/s41598-018-22590-5 | en |
dc.description.version | Published version | en |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
Appears in Collections: | LKCMedicine Journal Articles |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe.pdf | 1.41 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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