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Title: Severity of pedestrian injuries due to traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong: a Bayesian spatial logit model
Authors: Xu, Xuecai
Xie, Siqi
Wong, Sze Chun
Xu, Pengpeng
Huang, Helai
Pei, Xin
Keywords: Signalized intersection
Pedestrian injury severity
Issue Date: 2017
Source: Xu, X., Xie, S., Wong, S. C., Xu, P., Huang, H., & Pei, X. (2017). Severity of pedestrian injuries due to traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong: a Bayesian spatial logit model. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 50(8), 2015-2028.
Series/Report no.: Journal of Advanced Transportation
Abstract: The present study intended to (1) investigate the injury risk of pedestrian casualties involved in traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong; (2) determine the effect of pedestrian volumes on the severity levels of pedestrian injuries; and (3) explore the role of spatial correlation in econometric crash-severity models. The data from 1889 pedestrian-related crashes at 318 signalized intersections between 2008 and 2012 were elaborately collected from the Traffic Accident Database System maintained by the Hong Kong Transport Department. To account for the cross-intersection heterogeneity, a Bayesian hierarchical logit model with uncorrelated and spatially correlated random effects was developed. An intrinsic conditional autoregressive prior was specified for the spatial correlation term. Results revealed that (1) signalized intersections with greater pedestrian volumes generally exhibited a lower injury risk; (2) ignoring the spatial correlation potentially results in reduced model goodness-of-fit, an underestimation of variability and standard error of parameter estimates, as well as inconsistent, biased, and erroneous inference; (3) special attention should be paid to the following factors, which led to a significantly higher probability of pedestrians being killed or sustaining severe injury: pedestrian age greater than 65 years, casualties with head injuries, crashes that occurred on footpaths that were not obstructed/overcrowded, heedless or inattentive crossing, crashes on the two-way carriageway, and those that occurred near tram or light-rail transit stops.
ISSN: 0197-6729
DOI: 10.1002/atr.1442
Schools: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering 
Rights: © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Fulltext Permission: none
Fulltext Availability: No Fulltext
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