Terrorism Outlook For 2004

Abstract

The threat of terrorism by AlQaeda and its associate groups will persist throughout 2004. After the AlQaeda attack on America’s iconic landmarks on 9/11 a state of war has prevailed between the West and terrorist groups, with AlQaeda and its associates periodically striking targets of the US, its allies and friends. The pre 9/11 AlQaeda group which conducted an average of one attack every two years, has morphed into a movement in which AlQaeda and its associate groups mount an average of an attack every three months. AlQaeda is now developing an ideological role, mostly through the Internet. While western governments devote their resources to fighting AlQaeda the centre of gravity of the movement has shifted to its associate groups which pose varying levels of threat in different regions.