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Title: Assessing Seasonal Risks for the Introduction and Mosquito-borne Spread of Zika Virus in Europe
Authors: Rocklöv, Joacim
Quam, Mikkel Brandon
Sudre, Bertrand
German, Matthew
Kraemer, Moritz U.G.
Brady, Oliver
Bogoch, Isaac I.
Liu-Helmersson, Jing
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
Semenza, Jan C.
Ong, Mark
Aaslav, Kaja Kaasik
Khan, Kamran
Keywords: ZIKV
Issue Date: 2016
Source: Rocklöv, J., Quam, M. B., Sudre, B., German, M., Kraemer, M. U., Brady, O., et al. (2016). Assessing Seasonal Risks for the Introduction and Mosquito-borne Spread of Zika Virus in Europe. EBioMedicine, 9, 250-256.
Series/Report no.: EBioMedicine
Abstract: The explosive Zika virus epidemic in the Americas is amplifying spread of this emerging pathogen into previously unaffected regions of the world, including Europe (Gulland, 2016), where local populations are immunologically naïve. As summertime approaches in the northern hemisphere, Aedes mosquitoes in Europe may find suitable climatic conditions to acquire and subsequently transmit Zika virus from viremic travellers to local populations. While Aedes albopictus has proven to be a vector for the transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses in Europe (Delisle et al., 2015; ECDC, n.d.) there is growing experimental and ecological evidence to suggest that it may also be competent for Zika virus(Chouin-Carneiro et al., 2016; Grard et al., 2014; Li et al., 2012; Wong et al., 2013). Here we analyze and overlay the monthly flows of airline travellers arriving into European cities from Zika affected areas across the Americas, the predicted monthly estimates of the basic reproduction number of Zika virus in areas where Aedes mosquito populations reside in Europe (Aedes aegypti in Madeira, Portugal and Ae. albopictus in continental Europe), and human populations living within areas where mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus may be possible. We highlight specific geographic areas and timing of risk for Zika virus introduction and possible spread within Europe to inform the efficient use of human disease surveillance, vector surveillance and control, and public education resources.
ISSN: 2352-3964
DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2016.06.009
Schools: Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine) 
Rights: © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:LKCMedicine Journal Articles

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