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Title: A Comparative Frequency Analysis of Maximum Daily Rainfall for a SE Asian Region under Current and Future Climate Conditions
Authors: Lo, Edmond Yat-Man
Daksiya, Velautham
Mandapaka, Pradeep
Keywords: Frequency analysis
SE asian region
Issue Date: 2017
Source: Daksiya, V., Mandapaka, P., & Lo, E. Y. -M. (2017). A Comparative Frequency Analysis of Maximum Daily Rainfall for a SE Asian Region under Current and Future Climate Conditions. Advances in Meteorology, 2017, 2620798-.
Series/Report no.: Advances in Meteorology
Abstract: The impact of changing climate on the frequency of daily rainfall extremes in Jakarta, Indonesia, is analysed and quantified. The study used three different models to assess the changes in rainfall characteristics. The first method involves the use of the weather generator LARS-WG to quantify changes between historical and future daily rainfall maxima. The second approach consists of statistically downscaling general circulation model (GCM) output based on historical empirical relationships between GCM output and station rainfall. Lastly, the study employed recent statistically downscaled global gridded rainfall projections to characterize climate change impact rainfall structure. Both annual and seasonal rainfall extremes are studied. The results show significant changes in annual maximum daily rainfall, with an average increase as high as 20% in the 100-year return period daily rainfall. The uncertainty arising from the use of different GCMs was found to be much larger than the uncertainty from the emission scenarios. Furthermore, the annual and wet seasonal analyses exhibit similar behaviors with increased future rainfall, but the dry season is not consistent across the models. The GCM uncertainty is larger in the dry season compared to annual and wet season.
ISSN: 1687-9309
DOI: 10.1155/2017/2620798
Rights: © 2017 Velautham Daksiya et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
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