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Title: Generation and evaluation of space–time trajectories of photovoltaic power
Authors: Golestaneh, Faranak
Gooi, Hoay Beng
Pinson, Pierre
Keywords: Stochastic dependence
Multivariate distribution
Issue Date: 2016
Source: Golestaneh, F., Gooi, H. B., & Pinson, P. (2016). Generation and evaluation of space–time trajectories of photovoltaic power. Applied Energy, 176, 80-91.
Series/Report no.: Applied Energy
Abstract: In the probabilistic energy forecasting literature, emphasis is mainly placed on deriving marginal predictive densities for which each random variable is dealt with individually. Such marginals description is sufficient for power systems related operational problems if and only if optimal decisions are to be made for each lead-time and each location independently of each other. However, many of these operational processes are temporally and spatially coupled, while uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation is strongly dependent in time and in space. This issue is addressed here by analysing and capturing spatio-temporal dependencies in PV generation. Multivariate predictive distributions are modelled and space–time trajectories describing the potential evolution of forecast errors through successive lead-times and locations are generated. Discrimination ability of the relevant scoring rules on performance assessment of space–time trajectories of PV generation is also studied. Finally, the advantage of taking into account space–time correlations over probabilistic and point forecasts is investigated. The empirical investigation is based on the solar PV dataset of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom) 2014.
ISSN: 0306-2619
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.05.025
Schools: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering 
Rights: © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. This is the author created version of a work that has been peer reviewed and accepted for publication by Applied Energy, Elsevier Ltd. It incorporates referee’s comments but changes resulting from the publishing process, such as copyediting, structural formatting, may not be reflected in this document. The published version is available at: [].
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:EEE Journal Articles

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