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Title: Coupled model biases breed spurious low-frequency variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean
Authors: Samanta, Dhrubajyoti
Karnauskas, Kristopher B.
Goodkin, Nathalie F.
Coats, Sloan
Smerdon, Jason E.
Zhang, Lei
Keywords: Model bias
Issue Date: 2018
Source: Samanta, D., Karnauskas, K. B., Goodkin, N. F., Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., & Zhang, L. Coupled model biases breed spurious low-frequency variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2018GL079455
Series/Report no.: Geophysical Research Letters
Abstract: Coupled general circulation model (GCM) biases in the tropical Pacific are substantial, including a westward extended cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Investigation of internal climate variability at centennial timescales using multicentury control integrations of 27 GCMs suggests that a Pacific Centennial Oscillation emerges in GCMs with too strong ENSO variability in the equatorial Pacific, including westward extended SST variability. Using a stochastic model of climate variability (Hasselmann type), we diagnose such centennial SST variance in the western equatorial Pacific. The consistency of a simple stochastic model with complex GCMs suggests that a previously defined Pacific Centennial Oscillation may be driven by biases in high‐frequency ENSO forcing in the western equatorial Pacific. A cautious evaluation of long‐term trends in the tropical Pacific from GCMs is necessary because significant trends in historical and future simulations are possible consequences of biases in simulated internal variability alone.
ISSN: 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL079455
Rights: © 2018 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
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