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Title: Can the updip limit of frictional locking on megathrusts be detected geodetically? Quantifying the effect of stress shadows on near-trench coupling
Authors: Lindsey, Eric Ostrom
Bradley, Kyle
Hubbard, Judith
Mallick, Rishav
Hill, Emma Mary
Almeida, Rafael
Keywords: Zero Coupling
Issue Date: 2018
Source: Almeida, R., Lindsey, E. O., Bradley, K., Hubbard, J., Mallick, R., & Hill, E. M. (2018). Can the Updip Limit of Frictional Locking on Megathrusts Be Detected Geodetically? Quantifying the Effect of Stress Shadows on Near-Trench Coupling. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(10), 4754-4763. doi:10.1029/2018GL077785
Series/Report no.: Geophysical Research Letters
Abstract: The updip limit of the seismogenic zone of megathrusts is poorly understood. The relative absence of observed microseismicity in such regions, together with laboratory studies of friction, suggests that the shallow fault is mostly velocity strengthening, and likely to creep. Inversions of geodetic data commonly show low to zero coupling at the trench, reinforcing this view. We show that the locked, downdip portion of the megathrust creates an updip stress shadow that prevents the shallow portion of the fault from creeping at a significant rate, regardless of its frictional behavior. Our models demonstrate that even if the shallowest 40% of the fault is frictionally unlocked, the expected creep at the fault tip is at most 30% of the plate rate, often within the uncertainties of surface geodetic measurements, and below current resolution of seafloor measurements. We conclude that many geodetic models significantly underestimate the degree of shallow coupling on megathrusts, and thus seismic and tsunami hazard.
ISSN: 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL077785
Rights: © 2018 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:EOS Journal Articles

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