Outlook for Malaysia's 12th general elections

Abstract

As Malaysia prepares for its twelfth general elections, scheduled for 8 March 2008, most pundits and observers agree that it is unlikely that the 2004 performance can be reproduced. Public opinion has homed in on the unfulfilled promises of the 2004 campaign, party warlords continue to dominate the BN, and minority rights continue to be eroded. Aware of the weaknesses in the BN, the opposition has signaled their intention to deny the BN a two-thirds parliamentary majority.

This paper looks to assess the key issues, themes, and actors as the script to Malaysia’s twelfth general election unfolds. While it is widely expected that the BN will retain its two-thirds majority, its hold on parliament as well as many state legislatures is likely to be eroded. Unlike the previous two elections, the manner in which the ruling government has managed minority issues will see a discernible shift in the non-Malay ground, where the ethnic minority vote is likely to go to the opposition, even as the UMNO-PAS competition battles itself into a stalemate.