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Title: Forecasting southern California earthquakes
Authors: Sieh, Kerry
Raleigh, C. B.
Sykes, L. R.
Anderson, D. L.
Keywords: DRNTU::Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes
Issue Date: 1982
Source: Raleigh, C. B., Sieh, K., Sykes, L. R., & Anderson, D. L. (1982). Forecasting southern California earthquakes. Science, 217(4565), 1097-1104.
Series/Report no.: Science
Abstract: Since 1978 and 1979, California has had a significantly higher frequency of moderate to large earthquakes than in the preceding 25 years. In the past such periods have also been associated with major destructive earthquakes, of magnitude 7 or greater, and the annual probability of occurrence of such an event is now 13 percent in California. The increase in seismicity is associated with a marked deviation in the pattern of strain accumulation, a correlation that is physically plausible. Although great earthquakes (magnitude greater than 7.5) are too infrequent to have clear associations with any pattern of seismicity that is now observed, the San Andreas fault in southern California has accumulated sufficient potential displacement since the last rupture in 1857 to generate a great earthquake along part or all of its length.
ISSN: 0036-8075
DOI: 10.1126/science.217.4565.1097
Rights: © 1982 American Association for the Advancement of Science
Fulltext Permission: none
Fulltext Availability: No Fulltext
Appears in Collections:EOS Journal Articles

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