Tsunami hazard from the subduction megathrust of the South China Sea : Part II. Hydrodynamic modeling and possible impact on Singapore

Abstract

USGS has identified certain section of the Manila (Luzon) trench as a high-risk earthquake zone. This zone is where the Eurasian plate is actively subducting eastward underneath the Luzon volcanic arc on the Philippine Sea plate. An earthquake of magnitude 9.0 could be generated based on the worst case scenario rupture of Manila Trench. In this paper, the possible impact of this worst case scenario rupture on Singapore is investigated using a numerical model. It is found that (1) it takes about 12 h for the tsunami waves generated at Manila Trench to arrive at Singapore coastal waters; (2) the wave period of the tsunami wave, i.e., time interval between two peaks, is about 5 h; (3) the maximum water level rise in Singapore water is about 0.8 m; and (4) the maximum velocity associated with the tsunami waves is about 0.5 m/s, which is not likely to have significant impact on the port operations in Singapore.